Subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of Australian tropical cyclones

Project Title:

Subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of Australian tropical cyclones

Supervisor(s):

Dr Savin Chand

Contact person and email address:

Savin Chand: s.chand@federation.edu.au

A brief description of the project:

Substantial progress has been made in recent decades to provide tropical cyclone warnings at medium-range weather (up to 2 weeks) and seasonal climate (3-6 months) time scales. However, the intervening subseasonal to seasonal time scale has long been considered a “predictability desert”, and forecasting tropical cyclones for this time range has received much less attention compared to medium-range and seasonal forecasts. Through detailed analysis of observations and operational model forecasts, this project seeks to develop subseasonal to seasonal tropical cyclone prediction systems for Australia and the Pacific. Insights gained will advance our knowledge towards more seamless and integrated weather and climate forecasts.